EBOLA WATCH 2014

THE 2014 EBOLA CRISIS

Ebola is scary much like AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) and cancer are scary diseases. Ebola is scary mainly because, like AIDS and cancer, there is no proven or widely available cure for Ebola. Once infected with Ebola, the table below indicates that, as of 31-March-2016, the patient has about a 40% likelihood of dying. Unlike AIDS or cancer, those who are in close and frequent proximity to someone infected with Ebola also run the risk of becoming infected. Like the cases of AIDS and cancer, generally speaking, there is little cause for public panic and hysteria over Ebola, especially for those humans who do not live in countries that are directly impacted by Ebola. Unlike the cases of AIDS and cancer, if someone infected with Ebola does not receive treatment, then perhaps the scariest thing about the infection is this: The outcome usually is a rapid, devastating, and painful deterioration of the body's immune system in a matter of days. Death is swift.

Thankfully, it pleases me to announce that, as of 31-March-2016, the 2014 Ebola crisis is all but over. The fight against the Ebola infection can be declared as having been successfully concluded. As of 31-March-2016, the overall death rate from the Ebola infection stood at 40%, which means the survival rate was a successful 60%. In other words, 60% of the Ebola patients were able to beat the infection and return home to their loved ones. Naturally, it is deeply regrettable that anyone had to die from the Ebola infection.

I wish to extend a debt of gratitude and thanks to all of those who were engaged in the fight against the Ebola infection, both directly on the frontlines and indirectly through donations. Keep in mind that this particular victory in the two-year, humanitarian battle against the 2014 Ebola outbreak does not mean that there will not be another mass Ebola outbreak on some future date. Hopefully, there will not be another mass outbreak of Ebola infection. Hopefully, going forward, new Ebola infections quickly will be isolated and contained to only a few cases before they turn into mass infections of the population.

In the case of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, directly impacted or hardest hit countries are Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. As the above table illustrates, at the current juncture in time as of 31-March-2016, the number of affected individuals has climbed to almost 30,000. The infection incidence remains very small relative to the larger population of humans on Earth (that is, over 7 billion humans on Earth in total and 720 million humans in the impacted countries). While Ebola is fatal, absent the symptoms of an Ebola infection (namely, headache, muscle pain, diarrhea, vomiting, stomach pain, or unexplained bruising or bleeding), Ebola is not a contagious virus. That is to say, Ebola is not an airborne type of infection that anyone can randomly catch, say, on public transportation, at the marketplace, at sporting events, at work, at school, and so forth. According to prevailing knowledge, you have to be in close proximity to someone who has begun displaying all of the symptoms of an Ebola infection in order to become infected by it, too. According to prevailing knowledge, if someone is infected with the Ebola virus but has not yet begun showing symptoms of the infection, then you are not likely to become infected even if you are in close proximity to the infected person.

According to the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), you can help in protecting yourself and others from becoming infected with Ebola by doing the following things:

1. Washing hands frequently or using an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.
2. Avoiding contact with blood and body fluids of any person, particularly someone who is sick.
3. Not handling items that may have come in contact with an infected person's blood or body fluids.
4. Not touching the body of someone who has died from Ebola.
5. Not touching bats and nonhuman primates or their blood and fluids and not touching or eating raw meat prepared from these animals.
6. Avoiding hospitals in West Africa where Ebola patients are being treated. The U.S. Embassy or consulate is often able to provide advice on medical facilities.
7. Seeking medical care immediately if you develop fever (temperature of 101.5° Fahrenheit / 38.6° Celsius) and any of the other following symptoms: headache, muscle pain, diarrhea, vomiting, stomach pain, or unexplained bruising or bleeding. [If you develop fever], limiting your contact with other people until and when you go to the doctor. [If you develop fever], not traveling anywhere else besides a healthcare facility.

There are several ways to view progress in the quest to eradicate incidences of human Ebola infections. One way to view progress is when total Ebola cases and total Ebola deaths remain unchanged over time. Based on the top chart above, as of 31-March-2016, there were 28,639 Ebola cases and 11,316 Ebola deaths. The second chart above indicate that both the number of new Ebola cases and Ebola deaths began to level off around December 2015. Success against Ebola can be declared because the line and bars in the cumulative graphic have remained constant (or flat) in subsequent months since December 2015.

Another way to view progress is when period-over-period Ebola-related cases and Ebola-related deaths drop to zero. Success against Ebola also can be declared because, since December 2015, the month-over-month count of new infections and deaths practically had dropped to 0%.

As I mentioned on the "A Different Way" page of this website, social science is considered to be a dismal science. Social scientists often have to work with incomplete information. Social scientists have to make the most of the data that happens to be available to them. The Ebola outbreak represents a case in point where data is incomplete. Ideally, the Ebola tracking data would capture the number of cases, number of deaths, number cured/released, and the number still sick/hospitalized. In the first table above, for instance, when subtracting the total number of Ebola deaths from total number of Ebola cases, it is not clear to what extent the difference represents those who have been cured of Ebola and those who remain sick or hospitalized with the Ebola infection. As of 31-March-2016, it is assumed that those who did not die from the infection, in fact, were released from the treatment center and returned home.

Take the USA, for instance. If you subtract 4 USA Ebola cases from 1 USA Ebola death as taken from the top table above, then it leaves 3 cases. What do the three cases mean? In the case of the USA, the 3 cases mean all 3 patients were cured of the Ebola infection. The USA table below represents an example of more complete data and clearer tracking of the effort to eradicate Ebola in the USA. In the USA table below, you can see where the USA had logged a total of 4 Ebola cases as of 10/24/2014. You also can see the outcome of those 4 USA Ebola cases.

The following table provides more comprehensive statistics on the 2014 Ebola outbreak. Ulimately, the data was derived from the World Health Organization (WHO).